FOREX-Dollar mixed after large downward jobs revision
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By Karen Brettell
Aug 21 (Reuters) - The dollar was mixed on Wednesday after data showed employers added 818,000 fewer jobs in the year to March 2024 than previously thought, though the odds of the Federal Reserve making a larger rate cut in September were little changed.
The data was released later than its scheduled 1000 EDT time, leading to market confusion and some choppy trading.
It may not change the economic outlook for now, given how backdated it is.
"We know that it was a year of solid economic growth that company profits were fine and that the economy grew at a good clip for the year ending in March," said Adam Button, chief currency analyst at ForexLive in Toronto. "Maybe employment is a bit weaker but it doesn't tell us anything about the trend right now."
The odds of a Fed rate cut at its Sept. 17-18 meeting were little changed after the jobs release. Traders are pricing in a 33% probability of a 50 basis point cut, and a 67% chance of a 25 basis point reduction, according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool.
"It got easier for the Fed to cut rates now and through year-end but I don't think it makes a strong case for 50 basis points," Button said.
Fewer-than-expected job gains in July and an unexpected increase in the unemployment rate led traders to price for larger rate cuts on concern the United States is facing an imminent recession.
Those concerns were rowed back by better data, including a strong retail sales report for profit July and also higher-than-expected shelter inflation for the month.
But markets remain highly sensitive to jobs data for any new signs that the economy is worsening at a quicker pace.
Traders will focus on comments by Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Friday at the Kansas City Fed's Jackson Hole economic symposium for any new clues on his view of the labor market and whether he reference's Wednesday's data.
Markets in particular are looking for clarity on the likely size of a rate cut next month, and whether borrowing costs are likely to be lowered at each subsequent Fed meeting.
August employment and inflation data is due to be released after Powell´s speech but before the September meeting.
The Fed is also due to release the minutes from its July 30-31 meeting on Wednesday.
The dollar index was last down 0.01% at 101.37. The euro fell 0.03% to $1.1127.
Sterling was up 0.22% at $1.3058.
The dollar gained 0.23% to 145.59 Japanese yen
Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda is expected to discuss the central bank's decision last month to raise interest rates when he appears in parliament on Friday.
The Bank of Japan will raise interest rates again by year-end, according to more than half the economists in a Reuters poll published on Wednesday, with those who had a view on which month leaning towards a December increase.
Data next week is expected to show Japan's consumer inflation rate picked up in July for a third consecutive month, a Reuters poll of 18 economists showed.
In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin gained 0.48% to $59,597.
(Reporting By Karen Brettell; Editing by Sharon Singleton)
Aug 21 (Reuters) - The dollar was mixed on Wednesday after data showed employers added 818,000 fewer jobs in the year to March 2024 than previously thought, though the odds of the Federal Reserve making a larger rate cut in September were little changed.
The data was released later than its scheduled 1000 EDT time, leading to market confusion and some choppy trading.
It may not change the economic outlook for now, given how backdated it is.
"We know that it was a year of solid economic growth that company profits were fine and that the economy grew at a good clip for the year ending in March," said Adam Button, chief currency analyst at ForexLive in Toronto. "Maybe employment is a bit weaker but it doesn't tell us anything about the trend right now."
The odds of a Fed rate cut at its Sept. 17-18 meeting were little changed after the jobs release. Traders are pricing in a 33% probability of a 50 basis point cut, and a 67% chance of a 25 basis point reduction, according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool.
"It got easier for the Fed to cut rates now and through year-end but I don't think it makes a strong case for 50 basis points," Button said.
Fewer-than-expected job gains in July and an unexpected increase in the unemployment rate led traders to price for larger rate cuts on concern the United States is facing an imminent recession.
Those concerns were rowed back by better data, including a strong retail sales report for profit July and also higher-than-expected shelter inflation for the month.
But markets remain highly sensitive to jobs data for any new signs that the economy is worsening at a quicker pace.
Traders will focus on comments by Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Friday at the Kansas City Fed's Jackson Hole economic symposium for any new clues on his view of the labor market and whether he reference's Wednesday's data.
Markets in particular are looking for clarity on the likely size of a rate cut next month, and whether borrowing costs are likely to be lowered at each subsequent Fed meeting.
August employment and inflation data is due to be released after Powell´s speech but before the September meeting.
The Fed is also due to release the minutes from its July 30-31 meeting on Wednesday.
The dollar index was last down 0.01% at 101.37. The euro fell 0.03% to $1.1127.
Sterling was up 0.22% at $1.3058.
The dollar gained 0.23% to 145.59 Japanese yen
Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda is expected to discuss the central bank's decision last month to raise interest rates when he appears in parliament on Friday.
The Bank of Japan will raise interest rates again by year-end, according to more than half the economists in a Reuters poll published on Wednesday, with those who had a view on which month leaning towards a December increase.
Data next week is expected to show Japan's consumer inflation rate picked up in July for a third consecutive month, a Reuters poll of 18 economists showed.
In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin gained 0.48% to $59,597.
(Reporting By Karen Brettell; Editing by Sharon Singleton)
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